GoodBet Horse Racing and Me, a new love story?
Usually being more focused on football, last weekend must have been pretty quiet for me. Indeed, I avoid the final days of the championships as much as possible because they generally defy logic. So I decided to focus on horse racing, and more precisely on GoodBet Horse Racing, which gives you an overview of each race at a glance. My instinct as a football bettor then pushes me to look for a multiple (accumulator bet) that could, with a bit of luck, allow me to bring the kids to the waterpark they have been on at me since the end of the lockdown.
Beware, I am not looking to gamble, but to bet on selections that will give me serious chances to win. No way am I betting on 10 winning horses to aim for a hypothetical win of several thousand pounds, which you and I both know has only a tiny chance of success. I therefore choose to limit my multiple to 5 horses, and as far as possible only on the place market.
– Saturday, July 18th with GoodBet Horse Racing-
Not feeling particularly inspired this morning, certainly due to the fact that I am in rather unknown territory. I resign myself to reading the GoodBet user manual in order to have one or two ideas about the strategy to adopt. I have to say that I’m not a fan of this kind of reading, but I found it really very instructive. As suggested by the manual, I focus my research on horses with a number of GoodBet points between 17 and 18 on the flat, and 16 and 17 over jumps (the maximum points being 18 and 17 respectively).
Thanks to the overview of the races, I can quickly spot 17 flat races and 1 jumps race. I take a first look at each race, in order to make a second and third pre-selection. I then remove the races which several horses have 17/18 points (16/17 in jumps), this to avoid too open races: 3 races are put aside (15:05, 16:10 and 17:05). I also remove the races not recommended by GoodBet (displayed in red), there is only one (19:15).
I then have 13 flat races left, and only 1 jumps race. There are still a lot of races left, and I’d like to reduce the number of races even more. My choice is made! I’m going to focus on the placed market and base my multiple only on this type of market.
The consequence of this choice is that I will be able to eliminate all races where the horse with the highest number of points is 1/1 (2.0) or less on the placed market. Yes, I am not a fan of odds on betting where I can earn less money with a winning horse than it can cost me to lose! That’s my betting philosophy, in horse racing anyway.
This fourth pre-selection allows me to discard 5 more races (13:55, 15:40, 16:50, 17:20, 19:05), there are then 9 races left, that is to say 9 potential selections. Having limited my multiple to 5 selections, I must then make a final choice.
Now let’s detail each of these races:
NATURALLY BLOND, 17 points (Jump), 4 points ahead of GoodBet’s second selection! The ranking of the horses in the table on the left side of GoodBet Horse Racing corresponds to the AtTheRaces.com (ATR) selections. NATURALLY BLOND is the 1st ATR selection. Nothing else to add, I keep him!
JUDICIAL, 18 points, a DOB of 9/10 in GoodBet Horse Racing, a speed race (6f), first selection of ATR.
This horse has everything to be a contender for my multiple, or almost… What concerns me about him is that, on the one hand, his rating keeps increasing (from 6.4 to 14 just before the start of the race). For a selection of GoodBet and ATR, this is worrying. Moreover, many horses (7) in this race have at least 15 points, the race seems very indecisive to say the least, especially since TABDEED’s odds are melting like snow in the sun. JUDICIAL certainly has a good stall number, but SHINE SO BRIGHT is even better positioned, with a DOB of 10/10, and above all a much higher Top Speed (TS) value (104 against 87). For me, there is no doubt that SHINE SO BRIGHT will be among the leaders of this race, JUDICIAL certainly not, and the fact that many horses have a much better TS than him does not really inspire me with confidence. I am determined to skip this race.
ISOMER, 17 points, has at least 2 more points than the other runners. However, two things bother me here. Firstly, ISOMER does not repeat his races (see GoodBet criterion 4), so nothing says that he will be able to do a second good performance in a row today (he finished 3rd in his previous race). Secondly, and this is certainly linked to the previous point, what worries me is the running style of ISOMER. Looking at his Pace value, he tends to run at the back of the pack… He is even the horse in the race with the lowest value (3/10). On this kind of race with a rather short distance (1 mile), ISOMER will have to overtake 8 horses to finish in the top 3, this is risky. Remember, I want to take as few risks as possible, and I can’t make him a basis, so I put him aside in case I am missing a selection.
SURROUNDING, 18 points, DOB of 9/10, second best TS of the lot, short distance, only 7 starters (they will finally be 6 at the start), his odds falling on Betfair Exchange (will be 11 at the start of the race after reaching 21). Everything seems to be green for this selection. I keep it.
ICONIC KNIGHT, 18 points, DOB of 9/10, but… 4 other horses with a DOB of 10/10, and only the 8th best TS of the lot in a 5f sprint… Caution is required. Despite everything it is also the selection of ATR, so I put him aside in case I am missing a selection.
THREE LITTLE BIRDS, 17 points, 12 starters, DOB neutral for a sprint race, penultimate to last ATR selection, only 43 miles from his training center, this is neither the only horse his trainer took, nor the only horse his jockey rides in this meeting (you have this information represented by one or two stars in GoodBet Horse Racing after the horse’s name). Probably there to do the number. Let’s eliminate.
BLAIRMAYNE, 18 points, speed race (6f), a good TS close to the best in the race, a DOB of 9/10. The only other positive BOD is BUNGEE JUMP with 10/10, however he has never been placed on this kind of course (GoodBet criterion 6), and neither he (criteria 1 and 17), nor his coach (criterion 18) seems to be in good form at the moment. Which leads me to think that BLAIRMAYNE might be leading the race (I was wrong on this point). And icing on the cake, he has a very generous odds… I like it because I’ll be able to bet not on a place in the top 4 but in the top 5, while still having a very attractive odds with less risk (proposed by Betfair Sportsbook at 3.75). Let’s keep it!
DANECASE, 18 points, a correct pace (7/10 is the second of the race), the only horse of the trainer in this meeting, the 3rd best TS, 4th selection of ATR, a very interesting odds even allowing me to bet on a place in the first 4 (proposed by Betfair Sportsbook at 2.62). Concerning the opposition, two of the first 4 horses proposed by ATR (which have 17 points in GoodBet) have run at least 3 races in the previous 30 days (criterion 16 of GoodBet). And that, my colleague Dan, a horse specialist, has already told me several times in the past, that’ s not good! These horses risk being exhausted by their previous efforts, and probably won’t be able to compete in the last furlongs in case of a hard race (Dan will still be right since none of them will be placed). As for DUTCH STORY, 2nd selection of ATR whose odds dropped to become a favourite at less than 2/1, he never succeeded on this type of course at the age of 4, nor was he even placed in a handicap race with this weight (GoodBet criterion 13). Moreover, the condition of the ground does not give him an advantage (GoodBet’s criterion 11)… Too many negative points as far as I’m concerned. All the other horses are at least 3 points away from DANECASE which will be our 3rd selection (the horse will later be declared non-runner after I placed my bet).
EARTHLY, 18 points, 3 points ahead of GoodBet’s second selection! 1st selection of ATR. Long distance race and few starters so Pace not significant. Selected!
My 5 selections in the pocket, ISOMER and ICONIC KNIGHT have not been selected, now I have to place my bet. It’s Saturday, I want to enjoy my afternoon and not stand in front of my computer watching the races, so I decide to place my multiple at Betfair Sportsbook and not on Betfair Exchange.
As I want to take a minimum of risks, I choose the closest place odds to 2.0. It means sometimes a smaller win, but it can also increase the number of places in which my selections can finish. BLAIRMAYNE has a price of 3.75 to finish in the top 5, similarly SURROUNDING has a price of 2.75 to finish in the top 3. On the other hand, NATURALLY BLOND having a price below 2 at Betfair Sportsbook (not Betfair Exchange), I had to accept a price of 2.25 to be placed in the top 2 (I was very confident for this selection).
- NATURALLY BLOND @2.25 (2 Places market)
- SURROUNDING @2.75 (3 Places market)
- BLAIRMAYNE @3.75 (5 Places market)
- DANECASE (NR)
- EARTHLY @2.10 (3 Places market)
If all goes well, I win £127.33 for a bet of £1. Knowing my children and what they will spend besides the entry fee to the waterpark, I prefer to try for a little more… So I bet the crazy sum 😉 of £1.39, for a win of £177.45. Nice winnings for very little risk. Isn’t it?
A few hours later, DANECASE was non-runner. Among my other races, there were no other non-runners except horses that were not part of my selections. However, this had an impact on my possible winnings, which were now £43.39. This was still quite acceptable for a multiple of 4 horses on the place market.
Here are the results of my selections:
- NATURALLY BLOND: 2nd
- SURROUNDING: 3rd
- BLAIRMAYNE: 3rd
- DANECASE (NR)
- EARTHLY: 2nd
Here is the result of the multiple:
£43.39 won, good start for a beginner, isn’t it? Well, no water park at the moment but…
– Sunday, July 19th with GoodBet Horse Racing-
Encouraged by that victorious Saturday, but aware that perhaps luck had simply been with me at the right time, I was going to reinvest only part of the previous day’s winnings, £10, and keep the rest just in case, £33.39. With this amount, there will always be enough left for an equally nice pizza night… at least for me (football fan=pizza ;=).
Like the day before, I focus my research on horses with a number of GoodBet Horse Racing points between 17 and 18 on the flat, and 16 and 17 over jumps.
5 races on the flat and 3 races over jumps are then pre-selected. I take a first look at each race in order to make a second and third pre-selection. I then remove the races in which several horses have 17/18 points (16/17 in jumping), in order to avoid too open races: 3 races are put aside (14:30, 15:05 and 15:45).
I then have 2 races left on the flat, and 3 over obstacles. Given so few selections, I will probably have to either bet less than 5 horses, or bet in some cases on the Win market (which I want to avoid as much as possible). I will place my bets one by one on Betfair Exchange, a few minutes before each race, rolling on any winnings from the previous horse to the next one.
Let’s detail each of these races:
DIME A DOZEN, 17 points (Jump), 3 points more than the 2nd best selection of GoodBet, best TS, should lead the race at his own pace (DOB 9/10). Despite the fact that this is a race not recommended by GoodBet Horse Racing, this is my first selection. Its odds on the place market being less than 2.0, I will bet on this selection on the win market where the odds is 3.60.
PABLO ESCOBARR, 17 points, 3 points more than GoodBet’s 2nd best selection, the only horse with a non-neutral DOB (9/10), seems likely to lead the race. Endowed with a TS far from being ridiculous, I make this my 2nd selection.
STAR SHIELD, 17 points, sprint on 7f, a very average pace, a mediocre stall, 20 starters… No need to go further, selection far too risky.
INCLUDED, 16 points (Jump), 3 other competitors at 15 points. The penultimate TS (51), far behind the leaders (120, 117 and 117). Never succeeded on this type of course, and in obstacles this can be a very important point according to Dan. A quick aside, at the finish, the first 3 horses of this race will be the only 3 horses to have already succeeded on this type of course: FLEETING VISIT at 6.2, TEL’ART at 4.7 and MAN OF PLENTY at 20.0. With a £260 trifecta on the Tote, this would have been worth a small piece. In my case, I am not keeping this selection.
PROPHETS PRAYER, 17 points, 1st selection of ATR, its odds keeps falling (it will end at 5.76 BSP after reaching 9.8). With a 3 points lead on the 3rd selection of GoodBet, this is our 4th selection (with a very nice 4 TBP (4 places) odds obtained just after the previous race).
3 selections only for this Sunday, but of great quality.
The odds I got are as follows:
- DIME A DOZEN @3.60 (Win market)
- PABLO ESCOBARR @2.62 (To Be Placed market)
- PRAYER PROPHETS @2.36 (4 TBP market)
And here are the results of my selections:
- DIME A DOZEN: 1st
- PABLO ESCOBARR: 3rd
- PRAYER PROPHETS: 3rd
Here’s the result of the multiple:
With a bet of £10, I won the tasty sum of £191.65 on Sunday, plus £43.39 on Saturday, making a total of £235.04 for an initial bet of only £1.39!!! My children are happy with the waterpark and I have the pizza party too! ?
As you can see, I can’t advise you to play all the first selections of GoodBet without further consideration. I don’t think that’s the purpose of this software, and by the way, between us, no software or website can claim such foolishness. Winning all the races is impossible, it simply doesn’t exist. But I can assure you that GoodBet will be a great help, and that GoodBet Horse Racing will save you precious time in your selection process… your brain and flair will do the rest. Heck, I am not just happy but ecstatic that I have found something to balance against the footie certainly while I wait for the new season to settle down.
Your fellow bettor.
Find out more here about the first GoodBet Horse Racing’s case study